Price analysis 3/29: BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP, ADA, DOGE, MATIC, SOL, DOT, LTC
Bitcoin and select altcoins are close to breaking out of their overhead resistance levels, indicating that bulls remain in control of the crypto market.
Bitcoin (BTC) is up about 71% in Q1 2023, which is the first positive quarter after four consecutive quarters of negative returns in 2023, according to data from Coinglass. This shows that the sentiment has turned positive and the bulls are trying to put a bottom in Bitcoin.
When the undercurrent is bullish, negative news results in shallow corrections. That is what happened after the United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission slapped a lawsuit against Binance and its CEO, Changpeng Zhao, for trading violations. This news pulled the markets marginally lower but did not start a strong down move.
Another thing that happens in a bullish environment is that cryptocurrencies move up without any specific catalyst. That happened on March 29 when Bitcoin and several major altcoins turned up sharply.
Could Bitcoin and select altcoins start the next leg of the uptrend? And where is the rally likely to face resistance? Let’s study the charts of the top-10 cryptocurrencies to find out.
Bitcoin price analysis
In an uptrend, traders typically buy the pullbacks to the 20-day exponential moving average ($26,371). The long tails on the March 27 and 28 candlestick show just that.
The rising 20-day EMA and the relative strength index (RSI) above 63 indicate that bulls are in control. The buyers will try to cement their dominance further by thrusting the price above $28,868.
If they succeed, the BTC/USDT pair is likely to soar to $30,000 and then continue the rally to the critical resistance at $32,500. The bears will try to halt the up-move in this zone because a rally above $32,500 could clear the path for a sharp rally to $40,000.
Time is running out for the bears. They will have to first pull the price below the 20-day EMA and then retest the breakout level of $25,250. If this level also fails to hold up, the pair may plummet to the 200-day simple moving average ($20,281).
Ether price analysis
Ether (ETH) bounced off the $1,680 support on March 28, signaling that lower levels are attracting buyers. This keeps the price stuck between $1,680 and $1,857.
The upsloping 20-day EMA ($1,720) and the RSI near 58 suggest that the bulls have the upper hand. If buyers nudge the price above $1,857, the ETH/USDT pair could rally to $2,000 and thereafter make a dash to $2,200.
On the contrary, if sellers want to prevent this bullish move, they will have to quickly yank the price below the $1,680 support. If that happens, the pair could skid to $1,600 and subsequently nosedive to $1,461.
BNB price analysis
BNB (BNB) sank below the 20-day EMA ($316) on March 26 but the bears could not maintain the selling pressure. The bulls purchased the dip and pushed the price above the 20-day EMA on March 29.
Buyers will next try to overcome the obstacle at the downtrend line. If they can pull it off, the BNB/USDT pair may climb to the overhead resistance zone between $338 and $346. The bears are expected to defend this zone with all their might because if it gives way, the pair could soar toward $400.
Contrarily, if the price reverses direction from the current level or the downtrend line, it will suggest that the sentiment remains negative and bears are selling on rallies. The pair may then collapse to the 200-day SMA ($290).
XRP price analysis
XRP (XRP) picked up momentum on March 27 and broke above the immediate resistance zone of $0.49 to $0.51 on March 28.
The bulls continued their buying spree on March 29 and sent the XRP/USDT pair flying above the crucial resistance at $0.56. If bulls sustain the price above $0.56, it will indicate the start of a new uptrend. The pair may rally to $0.65 and then to $0.80.
The long wick on the March 29 candlestick shows that bears are selling the rally above $0.56. If the price turns down and plunges below $0.49, it will indicate that the current breakout may have been a bull trap. The pair could then fall to $0.43.
Cardano price analysis
Cardano (ADA) broke below the 20-day EMA ($0.35) on March 27 but it proved to be a bear trap. The price turned up and soared above the moving averages on March 28.
The bulls have overcome the immediate resistance at $0.39, clearing the path for a potential rally to the neckline of the inverse head and shoulders (H&S) pattern. If bulls sustain the momentum and thrust the price above the neckline, it will complete the bullish setup. That may start a new up-move which has a pattern target of $0.60.
On the downside, a break and close below $0.33 will be a warning sign that bears are back in the game. That may sink the ADA/USDT pair to the vital support at $0.30.
Dogecoin price analysis
Dogecoin (DOGE) remains stuck between the 200-day SMA ($0.08) and $0.07. This consolidation could act as a launchpad for the next directional move.
A break and close above the 200-day SMA will be the first sign that the bulls have absorbed the selling. That could attract further buying and catapult the price to the overhead resistance zone between $0.10 and $0.11.
Another possibility is that the price turns down from the 200-day SMA and plunges below the support at $0.07. If that happens, it will suggest that bears have overpowered the bulls. The DOGE/USDT pair could then drop to $0.06.
Polygon price analysis
Polygon (MATIC) rebounded off the strong support at $1.05 on March 28, indicating that the bulls are fiercely protecting this level.
The bulls extended the recovery on March 29 by shoving the price above the 20-day EMA ($1.12). If buyers sustain the breakout, it will clear the path for a possible rally to the overhead resistance zone between $1.25 and $1.30.
Conversely, if the price turns down and breaks below the $1.05 support, it will suggest that the bears are selling on relief rallies. The MATIC/USDT pair may then slide to the 200-day SMA ($0.97). This is an important support to keep an eye on because if it cracks, the next stop could be $0.69.
Related: ‘Definitely not bullish’ — 7% Bitcoin price gains fail to convince traders
Solana price analysis
Solana (SOL) has been trading between the downtrend line and the horizontal support of $18.70 for the past few days.
The bulls have been buying the dips to $18.70 but they have failed to propel the price above the downtrend line. This indicates that bears are active at higher levels. This state of uncertainty is unlikely to remain for long.
If buyers force the price above the downtrend line, it will suggest a potential trend change. The SOL/USDT pair could first rise to $27.12 and later attempt a rally to $39. Contrarily, a break below $18.70 could stretch the fall to $15.28.
Polkadot price analysis
Polkadot (DOT) closed below the 200-day SMA ($5.95) on March 27, but the bears could not build upon the advantage and sink the price below $5.70.
The bulls purchased at lower levels and pushed the price back above the 200-day SMA on March 28. Buyers boosted their strength further by kicking the price above the 20-day EMA ($6.11). The DOT/USDT pair could next climb to $6.70. This is an important short-term resistance for the bulls to overcome.
If they succeed in doing that, the pair may attempt a rally to the neckline of the inverse H&S pattern. This positive view will be negated if the price plummets below the $5.70-to-$5.15 support zone.
Litecoin price analysis
Litecoin (LTC) slipped below the 20-day EMA ($87) on March 28, but the long tail on the candlestick shows solid buying at lower levels.
The bulls continued their purchases on March 29 and are trying to push the price above the immediate resistance of $96. If they manage to do that, the LTC/USDT pair could surge to the strong overhead resistance at $106. The rising 20-day EMA and the RSI near 55 indicate a minor advantage to buyers.
If bears want to gain the upper hand, they will have to pull the price below the uptrend line. If that happens, the pair could slump to the strong support at $75.
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