Price analysis 4/3: SPX, DXY, BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP, ADA, MATIC, DOGE, SOL
Macroeconomic headwinds continue to pressure the crypto market, but bulls appear steadfast on holding $28,000 for support, and this could provide tailwinds for altcoins.
Bitcoin’s (BTC) price initially dipped, but then recovered on April 3. The volatility happened after several OPEC+ members announced plans to cut oil production, totaling 1.65 million barrels per day until the end of the year. Some analysts expect this move to tighten supply, resulting in higher prices at the pump. That may, in turn, boost inflation, warranting a continued hawkish stance from central banks.
Initially, the United States dollar index (DXY) rose, but it could not sustain the intraday rally. This suggests that the market participants believe the event will not cause any major deviation in the U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy. A weaker DXY is generally considered a positive for risky assets.
Cryptocurrencies have remained strong in the face of adverse macroeconomic news and regulatory action against crypto firms in the past few days. When the price of an asset does not crack with negative news, it shows that traders are not panicking and selling their holdings.
Could Bitcoin overcome the obstacle at $30,000 and start a bull run? Will altcoins also join the party? Let’s study the charts to find out.
S&P 500 index price analysis
The S&P 500 index (SPX) picked up momentum after breaking out of the wedge pattern. Buyers will try to push the price to $4,200 which is likely to act as a strong barrier.
If the price turns down from $4,200 but rebounds off the 20-day exponential moving average ($4,002), it will suggest that the sentiment has turned bullish. That could increase the possibility of a break above the $4,200-to-$4,325 resistance zone.
On the contrary, the bears will try to protect the overhead resistance zone and pull the index back below the moving averages. If they do that, several aggressive bulls may get trapped. The index may then collapse to the crucial support at $3,764.
U.S. dollar index price analysis
The U.S. dollar index broke below the 20-day EMA ($103) on March 17, indicating that the recovery is fizzling out.
Buyers tried to drive the price above the 20-day EMA on April 3, but the long wick of the candlestick shows that the bears did not relent. The bears will try to strengthen their position further by pulling the price to the horizontal support at $100.82.
On the other hand, the bulls will try to push the price back above the 20-day EMA. If they manage to do that, the index could rise to the 200-day SMA ($106). The bears are expected to mount a strong defense at this level.
Bitcoin price analysis
The bears could not even pull Bitcoin to the 20-day EMA ($27,105) on April 3, suggesting that the bulls are buying the intraday dips.
The rising 20-day EMA and the RSI in the positive zone indicate that the bulls are in control. Buyers will try to clear the overhead hurdle at $29,185. If they can pull it off, the BTC/USDT pair could jump to $30,000.
This level could witness a strong defense by the bears, but the possibility of a break above it remains high. The pair may then gradually rally to $32,500.
If bears want to stall the up-move, they will have to tug the price below the 20-day EMA. If they do that, several short-term traders may rush to the exit. That could drag the price to the breakout level of $25,250.
Ether price analysis
Ether (ETH) once again turned up from the 20-day EMA ($1,753) on April 3, indicating that the sentiment is positive and traders are buying on dips.
The vital level to watch on the upside is $1,857. If buyers overcome this obstacle, the ETH/USDT pair is likely to pick up momentum. The $2,000 level may act as a strong resistance but it is likely to be crossed. The pair may then attempt a rally to $2,200. This level is likely to attract strong selling by the bears.
The first important support on the downside is the 20-day EMA. If this level cracks, the pair may fall to $1,680. A break and close below this support may tilt the advantage back in favor of the bears.
BNB price analysis
The bulls tried to push BNB (BNB) above the downtrend line, but the bears held their ground. This suggests that the bears are selling on every minor rally.
The 20-day EMA ($315) is flattish and the RSI is just below the midpoint, indicating a balance between supply and demand. This balance will tilt in favor of the bears if the price breaks below $306. The BNB/USDT pair could then dive to the 200-day SMA ($290).
Alternatively, if the price turns up and breaks above $318, it will suggest that lower levels continue to attract buyers. The pair may then jump to the overhead resistance zone between $338 and $346.
XRP price analysis
Buyers are trying to arrest XRP’s (XRP) correction near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of $0.49 while the bears are attempting to sink the price below it.
If the price turns up from the current level, it will enhance the prospects of a rally above the overhead resistance zone of $0.56 to $0.58. There is a minor resistance at $0.65, but it is likely to be crossed. The XRP/USDT pair could then march toward $0.80.
Conversely, if the price continues lower and breaks below $0.49, it will suggest that the short-term traders may be booking profits. The pair could then descend to the 20-day EMA ($0.46). This is an important level for the bulls to defend because a break below it may sink the pair to $0.43.
Cardano price analysis
Cardano (ADA) rebounded off the 20-day EMA ($0.36) on April 3, indicating a change in sentiment from selling on rallies to buying on dips.
The upsloping 20-day EMA and the RSI in the positive zone increase the likelihood of a break above the neckline. If that happens, the inverse H&S pattern will complete. The ADA/USDT pair could then signal the start of a new uptrend. The pattern target of this reversal setup is $0.60.
If bears want to prevent the upward move, they will have to yank the price back below the 200-day SMA ($0.35). If they do that, the pair may tumble to $0.30.
Related: Bitcoin liquidity drops to 10-month low amid US bank run
Polygon price analysis
Polygon (MATIC) has been clinging to the 20-day EMA ($1.11) for the past few days, indicating that every minor dip is being bought.
The 20-day EMA is flattening out and the RSI is just below the midpoint, indicating that the selling pressure is reducing. If buyers propel the price above the $1.15 resistance, the MATIC/USDT pair could rally to the overhead resistance zone between $1.25 and $1.30.
Contrarily, if bulls fail to sustain the price above the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that bears are fiercely defending the level. The sellers will have to sink the price below the 200-day SMA ($0.97) to regain control.
Dogecoin price analysis
Dogecoin (DOGE) climbed above the 200-day SMA ($0.08) on April 1, but the bulls could not sustain the higher levels. The bears sold aggressively and pulled the price back below the 200-day SMA on April 2.
A minor positive for the bulls is that the DOGE/USDT pair has not broken below the 20-day EMA ($0.07). This suggests that lower levels continue to attract buyers. If the price rebounds off the 20-day EMA, the bulls will again try to push and sustain the price above the 200-day SMA. If they succeed, the pair could rally to $0.10 and then to $0.11.
This positive view could invalidate in the near term if the price turns down and plunges below the crucial support at $0.07. The pair may then nosedive to the support near $0.06.
Solana price analysis
Solana (SOL) continues to trade near the 20-day EMA ($20.83), indicating that both the bulls and the bears are not waging large bets.
Generally, periods of low volatility are followed by an uptick in volatility, but it is difficult to predict the direction of the breakout with certainty. Hence, it is better to wait for the price to make a decisive move before establishing trading positions.
If the price breaks above the downtrend line, the SOL/USDT pair could quickly rise to $27 and then surge to $39. Instead, if the price turns down and plummets below $18.70, the pair may slip to $15.28 and then to $12.
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