Most major cryptocurrencies have turned down from their 50-day moving averages, suggesting that bears are attempting to resume the downtrend.
The number of Bitcoin whales holding at least 1,000 BTC has been rising for the past few months, according to a report by Glassnode. The report also highlights that the accumulation continued during the recent slump on March 12 and 13 when Bitcoin’s price dropped below $4,000 levels. This suggests that the whales are bullish on Bitcoin due to the upcoming halving event in May.
Canadian asset manager 3iQ has launched “The Bitcoin Fund,” on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX), which is tied to Bitcoin. Tyler Winklevoss said that this was a historic moment as it was “the first public Bitcoin fund listed on a major stock exchange.” The fund offers an opportunity to the investors to add Bitcoin to their portfolio without worrying about cryptocurrency security or custody.
Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360
As the panic in the global markets subsides, Bitcoin has become more and more uncorrelated to every other asset class. In the past ten days, Bitcoin’s correlation with gold and the S&P 500 has turned negative. On the other hand, the correlation of Bitcoin with the major cryptocurrencies has risen sharply.
Though Bitcoin has not rallied during the current crisis, we like that it has behaved like a mature asset and has held its own. This is likely to attract institutional investors who might want to take exposure to an uncorrelated asset like Bitcoin, which has proven itself during one of the worst crises ever.
Today, the total crypto market capitalization has dipped below $200 billion, which shows bear pressure. Let’s study the charts of the major cryptocurrencies to spot the critical support levels to watch out for.
Bitcoin (BTC) failed to break out of the 50-day simple moving average for the past three days. This attracted profit booking by the short-term traders who had entered at lower levels. It also gave a shorting opportunity to the bears who are attempting to resume the downtrend.
BTC–USD daily chart. Source: Tradingview
The 20-day exponential moving average ($6,834) is likely to act as strong support on the downside. If the BTC/USD pair rebounds from close to this level, it will signal strength and increase the possibility of a breakout of the 50-day SMA. Above $7,500, a rally to $8,000 and above it to $9,000 is possible.
Contrary to our assumption, if the bears sink and sustain the pair below the 20-day EMA, a drop to $6,500 and below it $5,660.47 is likely.
The 20-day EMA is flattening out and the relative strength index has dipped below the midpoint, which suggests a consolidation in the near-term. For now, the traders can keep the stop loss on the long positions at $5,600.
Though Ether (ETH) surged on April 6, the bulls could not replicate the same move to push it above the 50-day SMA. This suggests that the bears are aggressively defending the level.
ETH–USD daily chart. Source: Tradingview
Currently, the ETH/USD pair has dipped to the 20-day EMA ($152), which is likely to act as strong support. If the pair rebounds off this level, the bulls will make another attempt to carry it above the 50-day SMA ($174).
If successful, a new uptrend with a target objective of $250 will start. There is a minor resistance at $208.50 but we expect it to be crossed.
Contrary to our assumption, if the pair dips below the 20-day EMA, a drop to $117.090 is likely. Therefore, the stops on the long positions can be kept at $135.
Though XRP closed (UTC time) above the 50-day SMA on April 08, the bulls could not build upon this advantage. This shows that the bears are aggressively defending the 50-day SMA. Currently, the bears are attempting to sink the altcoin below the 20-day EMA ($0.183).
XRP–USD daily chart. Source: Tradingview
If successful, the XRP/USD pair can dip to the strong support of $0.15983. A break below this level will indicate an advantage to the bears.
Conversely, if the pair rebounds off the 20-day EMA, the bulls will again attempt to start a new uptrend towards $0.25. For now, the traders can retain the stops on the long positions at $0.155.
Bitcoin Cash (BCH) scaled above the 50-day SMA on April 8 and 9 but the bulls failed to sustain the breakout. This shows a lack of buyers at higher levels. The bears will now try to grab the advantage by sinking the altcoin below the 20-day EMA ($238).
BCH–USD daily chart. Source: Tradingview
If the bears sustain the BCH/USD pair below the 20-day EMA, a drop to $200 and below it to $166 is likely. The traders can retain the stops on the long positions at $197.
On the other hand, if the pair bounces off the current levels or from $200, the bulls will again attempt to push it above $281.
Bitcoin SV (BSV) climbed to $227 on April 9, which was just below our first target objective of $233.314. However, the bulls could not sustain the higher levels and the altcoin has turned down sharply.
BSV–USD daily chart. Source: Tradingview
The failure of the bulls to hold on to the higher levels is a huge negative. It suggests profit booking by the short-term traders and selling by aggressive bears. The BSV/USD pair has dropped to the 20-day EMA at $181.7.
If the bears sustain the price below the 20-day EMA, a drop to $146.96 is possible. On the other hand, if the pair bounces off the current levels, it will increase the possibility of a rally to $268.842. Hence, the traders can retain the stop loss on the long positions at $165.
Though Litecoin (LTC) stayed above the critical level of $43.67 for three days, the bulls could not propel it above the 50-day SMA. This attracted selling, with the bears attempting to sink the altcoin below the 20-day EMA ($42.25).
LTC–USD daily chart. Source: Tradingview
If the price sustains below the 20-day EMA, a drop to $35.8582 is likely. This is an important support level to watch for because if this cracks, the decline can extend to $30.
However, if the LTC/USD pair rebounds off the current levels or $35.8582, the bulls will make another attempt to scale it above the 50-day SMA ($48.15). If successful, a rally to $63 is likely. The traders can keep the stop loss on the long positions at $35.
EOS has turned down from the 50-day SMA ($2.82), which shows that the bears are aggressively defending this resistance level. If the altcoin dips below the recent breakout level of $2.4001, a drop to $2.0632 is likely.
EOS–USD daily chart. Source: Tradingview
Both the moving averages have flattened out and the RSI has dropped below the midpoint, which suggests a few days of range-bound action.
The trend will turn in favor of the bulls if they can drive the EOS/USD pair above the 50-day SMA. In such a case, a rally to $3.1802 and then to $3.86 is possible. The traders can protect their long positions with the stop loss at $2.
The bulls failed to drive Binance Coin (BNB) above the 50-day SMA for four consecutive days. This has resulted in selling by the short-term bulls and the aggressive bears. A break below the 20-day EMA ($13.70) will strengthen the bears.
BNB–USD daily chart. Source: Tradingview
If the BNB/USD pair sustains below the 20-day EMA, a drop to the next support at $11.2552 is likely. If this level also cracks, the pair will become hugely negative.
On the other hand, if the pair bounces off the 20-day EMA, it will indicate that the sentiment is to buy the dips. The bulls will then attempt to push the price towards $17.50 and above it to the target objective of $21.50. Therefore, the traders can hold their long positions with the stop loss at $11.
XTZ–USD daily chart. Source: Tradingview
The bears will not attempt to sink the XTZ/USD pair below the 20-day EMA ($1.84). If successful, a drop to $1.65 and below that $1.4453 is possible. Therefore, the traders can keep the stop loss on the long positions at $1.40.
Conversely, if the pair rebounds off the 20-day EMA, it will signal to buy on dips. If the price breaks above $2.185, the pair is likely to rally to $2.75 and then to $3.33.
The sharp recovery from the recent lows has helped Chainlink (LINK) become the tenth largest cryptocurrency in terms of market capitalization. The 20-day EMA ($2.61) has turned up and the RSI is in the positive zone, which suggests that bulls have the upper hand.
LINK–USD daily chart. Source: Tradingview
If the LINK/USD pair bounces off the 50-day SMA ($3.04) or from the 20-day EMA, the bulls will try to resume the up move. A break above the overhead resistance at $3.5948, which is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the recent fall, is likely to be a huge positive.
Above this level, a rally to $4.9762 is possible. Though the bears might try to arrest the up move at $4.2023, we expect this level to be crossed.
Our bullish view will be invalidated if the pair drops below both the moving averages. Such a move can drag the price back to $2 levels. However, we give this a low probability of occurring.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.
Market data is provided by HitBTC exchange.